There is plenty of matter on the agenda of Thursday’s one-day meeting on Afghanistan in London. The bring together U.N. and NATO official, as well as foreign minister counting U.S. desk of State Hillary Clinton, are predictable to support a recent accord on a substantive increase of Afghan National Security Forces and set timelines for start to hand over security blame to them. They may well hash out a concrete suggestion for political settlement with the Taliban. But looming over the events will be memories of previous international conferences on Afghanistan – counting one in London in 2006 and one more in Paris in 2008 – that have seen little or no follow-through.
London meeting is meant to dispel difference within the global community on the move toward Afghanistan, which came to a head during the election period. The United Nations, with the support of the European Union, had by now proposed a conference in Kabul next the new government election. But France, Germany and the United Kingdom, under domestic force not to spend more money and human capital on a nonperforming government under President Hamid Karzai, wanted a forum to put concrete demands on the Afghan administration, leading to London in January with a Kabul meeting mooted in spring.
The London program that has emerged will center on security concerns and exact military strategy. Participants want to spell out a security strategy that will enable the major troop-contributing country to give their voters a clearer sense of when their armed forces can start withdrawing. But before that can happen, according to plans endorsed by President Barack Obama last month, 30,000 more U.S. troops and 7,000 from allied countries will organize in Afghanistan. On Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged to increase her country’s armed presence there from 4,500 to 5,000 troops.
An accord endorsed in Kabul last week after rough negotiations sandwiched between the Afghan government and donors calls for more than doubling the Afghan National Security Forces, from 191,000 now to 400,000 in five years. That effort will require more money and more trainers from Afghanistan’s partners, and the British administration hopes to secure commitment for both at the meeting.
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown has optional that Afghan forces have to be ready to take the lead in “at least five provinces … by the end of 2010,” but it is far from clear whether an actual figure of provinces will be spelled out at the conference, let alone specific provinces named – even though those decision have a direct bearing on any contemplate troop withdrawal.
The Afghan government is expected to table a rule that would allow resolution with the “Afghan” Taliban, an effort recently endorsed by Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the top leader of U.S. and NATO troops in the country. Karzai will also call for rehabilitated military operations across the border in Pakistan and ask Western donors to pay into a fund to enable cash expenditure to reintegrated armed forces.
“Those Taliban who are not part of terrorist network, who are the sons of the Afghan earth, and who are in thousands and thousands, they have to be reintegrated, and they are welcome to be included,” Karzai said at a regional meeting in Istanbul on Tuesday.
growth and governance have also been cited as theme for the conference, but real, measurable ladder on those issue will be tougher to safe, much to the regret of many experts. “The focus on supremacy is long overdue,” said Rachel Reid, Afghanistan researcher for Human Rights Watch. “As long as there are recognized rights abusers and people associated with criminal activity in public office, the government will fail to win the trust of the people. Similarly, there can be no half measures from the international group of people, who are bring pressure upon the administration to reform, but are motionless failing to review who it is they are enriching and empower in Afghanistan.”